In the company’s strategic plan for the next 15-20 years published last Thursday, Honda Motor Co. announced its intention to lead the global electric motorcycle market. But there is an important, very important caveat…
According to the forecasts of Honda analysts, with the plans that have been developed now, the Japanese plant, in cooperation with business colleagues in Asia and America, has begun to divide a large, as yet non-existent pie.
Honda Motor Co sees its share in the electric motorcycle market by 2030 confidently – it is at least 15% and about 30 models of equipment (scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs). How much is it in real numbers?
If we proceed from today’s production volumes of Honda motorcycles with internal combustion engines, then by the end of 2021 they exceeded 17 million units (motorcycles and scooters, collectively in all markets). The company’s plan is to increase the production of motor vehicles in the next 10 years by 7-10%, but with a consistent replacement of equipment from internal combustion engines to electric-powered equipment.
By 2030, the production of electric motorcycles should make up 50% of the company’s production plan with the “complete abandonment of internal combustion engines” by 2040. We can estimate that by 2030 Honda wants to reach the level of 14 million electric scooters and motorcycles.
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But there is always a “but”. In this case, Honda has a very good and healthy reservation: when the company talks about “completely abandoning the production of internal combustion engines” and switching to environmentally friendly fuels and/or equipment with no “carbon footprint”, everywhere there is a postscript – “in the main world markets” – we are talking about the USA, Canada, EU, Japan, as well as China.
Do not forget that the main sales of Honda Motor Co. and its divisions are not made in these countries. Up to 10 million motorcycles and scooters are produced and sold in Southeast Asian countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.), and another 4 million in India. The “main” markets account for less than a quarter of sales.
The infrastructure of developing countries is so far from European standards and European principles that the rejection of ICE will simply close these markets for the manufacturer. Which, of course, is almost impossible from today’s point of view. And it is also clear to cautious Japanese analysts. But who knows how the world will change in 5 years?
With same Indonesia, negotiations are actively underway to join with plans to abandon the internal combustion engine by the same year 2050. And in Thailand, the authorities are transferring police officers to Honda BENLY e electric scooters: – the first in a series where Honda implemented a hot-swap battery replacement system. According to analysts, this technology can become a single standard for all manufacturers of electric scooters and motorcycles. However, so far only Honda is used.